Professional prediction trading organized around edge, evidence, and execution quality.

$6.3M open interest · depth 8.4 / 10

+4c vs market

Yes

58c

Fair value

62c

Spread

0.8c

Fed delivers a rate cut by the June meeting?

$5.1M open interest · depth 9.1 / 10

+5c vs market

Yes

64c

Fair value

69c

Spread

0.5c

$6.3M open interest · depth 8.4 / 10

+4c vs market

Yes

47c

Fair value

62c

Spread

0.8c

12 live signals, 5 linked markets, and 3 live alerts feed the contract-ranking model.

Today’s alerts

Live

High-conviction breakout signal active in Nasdaq-linked risk assets

critical

The strongest signal cluster currently supports tech beta and crypto continuation setups.

Just now

Fed repricing improving odds on June-cut market

high

Macro inputs have turned incrementally supportive for the June meeting cut contract.

11m ago

Volatility compression broadening market-maker confidence

medium

Lower implied volatility is supporting tighter risk conditions and more stable signal follow-through.

27m ago

Top signal stack

The most actionable setup cluster on the desk right now.

View all signals

crypto•BTC

bullish

Bitcoin demand supported by persistent ETF net inflows

Spot demand continues to absorb supply, giving crypto risk higher conviction and keeping new highs within reach.

cryptoflowsmomentum

Confidence

Strength

high

Timeframe

Signal trend86

Confidence curveUpdated just now

9m ago2 linked markets

index•NDX

bullish

Nasdaq 100 bullish momentum breakout

Price reclaimed short-term resistance with improving breadth and leadership concentrated in semis and mega-cap software.

breakoutmomentumrisk-on

Confidence

Strength

high

Timeframe

Signal trend84

Confidence curveUpdated 2m ago

12m ago2 linked markets

equity•NVDA

bullish

Nvidia leadership intact with fresh relative-strength expansion

The leading AI bellwether extended its outperformance, reinforcing the broader tech leadership regime and supporting index continuation signals.

leadershipequityai

Confidence

Strength

high

Timeframe

Signal trend81

Confidence curveUpdated 14m ago

1h ago1 linked markets

macro•VIX

bullish

Volatility regime easing below key stress band

Implied volatility compressed below the 15 to 16 stress range, supporting higher-beta positioning and more stable short-term market-making.

volatilityrisk-onregime

Confidence

Strength

high

Timeframe

Signal trend79

Confidence curveUpdated 5m ago

28m ago2 linked markets

Upcoming catalysts

What can reprice the signal board in the next session.

08:30 ET

high

Core PCE release

The cleanest macro catalyst for validating whether the June-cut probability can keep repricing upward.

Fed repricing desk

10:00 ET

medium

Fed governor remarks

Language around labor slack and services inflation could shift short-end sensitivity quickly.

June-cut market

16:20 ET

high

Nvidia supply-chain channel checks

Leadership credibility in the Nasdaq breakout still depends on continued semiconductor demand confirmation.

NVDA leadership board

18:00 ET

high

ETF flow batch update

Another strong inflow print would reinforce the highest-conviction crypto continuation thesis.

BTC flow signal

Crowded watchlist

Contracts drawing the most conversation and positioning attention.

Election probability compresses polling shifts, donor activity, and narrative momentum into one tradable signal.

214 comments1,820 traders$4.2M

Fed delivers a rate cut by the June meeting?

A clean directional market for macro liquidity, ETF flows, and reflexive crypto momentum.

178 comments1,512 traders$3.8M

A macro expression on inflation trajectory, employment cooling, and policy messaging.

95 comments904 traders$2.15M

A U.S. spot SOL ETF gets approved in 2026?

Regulatory timing, issuer pressure, and market structure all roll up into a single tradable line.

82 comments612 traders$1.28M

Market-moving news

Real-world developments translated into contract impact instead of a generic news feed.

Open alert center

Macro Desk Wireinstitutional4m ago

high impact

Core PCE preview points to softer month-on-month inflation print

Dealer preview and options positioning both imply a lower-friction inflation release than the prior month.

Expected contract move

+3c to +6c in June-cut probability

Fair value +4c · 87 / 100

Why it matters

A softer inflation print would reinforce the current rates-relief narrative and improve the quality of policy-sensitive prediction setups.

ETF Flow Monitorspecialist11m ago

high impact

Spot BTC ETF basket logs another strong net inflow session

Flow follow-through remains supportive and absorption remains firm into U.S. close.

Expected contract move

+4c to +7c in BTC ATH contracts

Fair value +5c · 91 / 100

Why it matters

This is one of the cleanest event-to-price links on the platform because ETF flows are a direct validation input for the crypto continuation thesis.

Campaign Trackerspecialist19m ago

medium impact

Major donor bloc commits earlier than expected to Democratic primary field

The commitment narrows uncertainty around candidate consolidation and strengthens the nomination narrative.

Expected contract move

+2c to +4c in election probability

Fair value +3c · 74 / 100

Why it matters

Political contracts reprice faster when fundraising and coalition signals move ahead of public polling, because they alter the perceived durability of the field.

ECB Macro Noteinstitutional33m ago

medium impact

Eurozone growth survey misses again, keeping recession risk alive

Regional activity data remains soft enough to keep recession contracts in play despite a modest energy reprieve.

Expected contract move

+3c to +5c in recession odds

Fair value +4c · 79 / 100

Why it matters

This is the kind of slow-burn macro update that does not create a one-minute spike, but steadily changes fair value if repeated across releases.

Macro pulse

A cross-asset board that explains where confirmation is coming from.

AssetDesk readLastMoveThesis

rates

US2Y

June-cut supportive

U.S. 2Y yield

4.38%

-8 bps

Front-end easing is helping policy-sensitive markets and lowering discount-rate pressure.

DXY

Risk pressure easing

Dollar index

102.8

-0.46%

Dollar softness is improving the backdrop for growth beta, commodities, and crypto.

equity

NDX

Breakout confirmed

Nasdaq 100

18,204

+1.31%

Semis and software continue to lead, keeping the strongest continuation setup in large-cap growth.

volatility

VIX

Stress band cleared

CBOE Volatility Index

14.9

-1.2 pts

Lower volatility is supporting tighter market-making conditions and cleaner signal transmission.

crypto

BTC

ETF demand intact

Bitcoin

$108.2K

+2.8%

ETF absorption remains the highest-quality crypto signal and continues to support ATH probability markets.

commodity

WTI

Macro neutral

WTI crude

$77.40

+0.5%

Energy remains firm but is not yet creating enough inflation stress to disrupt the softer rates narrative.

Cross-asset playbooks

Signal groupings that connect macro evidence to tradable prediction setups.

Growth beta continuation

NDX, NVDA, BTC, SOL

91 / 100

Nasdaq breakout, semis leadership, and volatility compression are aligned in the same direction.

4 signals · 2 marketsOpen cluster

Rates relief and macro easing

FED, US2Y, DXY, SPX

82 / 100

Policy repricing and softer dollar conditions are improving the odds for rate-sensitive contracts.

3 signals · 3 marketsReview macro thesis

Equity leadership rotation watch

MSFT, AMZN, META, TSLA

67 / 100

MSFT and AMZN are improving breadth, while TSLA remains a risk pocket that keeps the cluster from full confirmation.

4 signals · 2 marketsView leadership board

Index regime board

Benchmark coverage with regime, breadth, and volatility context rather than raw price tiles.

Open indices

SPX

S&P 500

5,214.8

+0.84%

Participation quality is improving after a narrow leadership phase.

Regime

Balanced risk-on

Volatility

Volatility contained

Breadth

Breadth improving

5D price path5214.8

3 linked signalsUpdated 2m ago

NDX

Nasdaq 100

18,204.2

+1.31%

Momentum remains strongest here, led by semis and software.

Regime

Momentum expansion

Volatility

Controlled beta

Breadth

Leadership-led

5D price path18204.2

3 linked signalsUpdated just now

DJI

Dow Jones

39,482.1

+0.42%

A steadier tape, but still less conviction than growth-led indices.

Regime

Defensive stability

Volatility

Low realized vol

Breadth

Stable internals

5D price path39482.1

2 linked signalsUpdated 5m ago

RUT

Russell 2000

2,128.4

+0.67%

Small caps are improving, but signal quality still trails large-cap growth.

Regime

Early cyclical recovery

Volatility

Higher beta

Breadth

Selective participation

5D price path2128.4

2 linked signalsUpdated 7m ago

Investor demo briefing

A guided path through the strongest product story beats.

signal

Now

Open with the Nasdaq breakout and explain why crypto is linked

The strongest top-down demo path is still the Nasdaq 100 breakout feeding into BTC and SOL-related prediction markets.

index

Today

Use the S&P breadth board to show this is not just a crypto front end

Broad index coverage improves investor confidence that the platform can extend beyond niche prediction topics.

equity

Today

Show NVDA and MSFT as examples of positive equity signal coverage

This demonstrates the system can rank clean leadership setups rather than only macro alerts.

equity

Monitor

Use Tesla to prove the signal engine can also surface negative setups

A credible platform should show what to avoid, not only what to buy.

Indicator stocks

Leadership, laggards, and tactical risk names shown in the same research model.

Open equities

Mega-cap technology

Apple

AAPL

$214.62

+0.31%

Cooling momentum without structural damage makes Apple a high-quality watchlist candidate rather than an urgent chase.

Setup

Constructive reset

Stable vs NDX

Volatility

Contained

5D tape214.62

1 linked signalsUpdated 6m ago

Enterprise software

Microsoft

MSFT

$482.14

+0.94%

High-quality trend persistence keeps Microsoft in the leadership basket for investors who want cleaner beta than higher-vol names.

Setup

Trend continuation

Strong vs SPX

Volatility

Low

5D tape482.14

1 linked signalsUpdated 3m ago

Semiconductors

Nvidia

NVDA

$1,128.40

+2.16%

Still the clearest leadership signal in growth, but increasingly crowded and event-sensitive.

Setup

Leadership extension

Very strong vs NDX

Volatility

Elevated but controlled

5D tape1128.4

1 linked signalsUpdated just now

High-conviction markets

Prediction trades with the clearest signal alignment and strongest current edge.

A U.S. spot SOL ETF gets approved in 2026?

crypto · resolves Dec 31, 2026

$3.8M

64% yes

+5c vs market

+7.8%

crypto · resolves Dec 31, 2026

$1.28M

41% yes

+4c vs market

+5.9%

Eurozone enters a technical recession this year?

politics · resolves Nov 3, 2028

$4.2M

58% yes

+4c vs market

+4.3%

macro · resolves Dec 31, 2026

$980K

29% yes

+4c vs market

-3.1%

Today’s market activity

An execution-style board for showing liquidity, trader activity, and current pricing skew.

1,820 traders · $4.2M

deep

Yes 58%No 42%

0.8c spread+4c vs market