Short-end rate expectations moved incrementally dovish, improving odds of a June policy cut and easing financial conditions at the margin.
Confidence
74
Strength
medium
Triggered
43m ago
Timeframe
1D
Compact confidence path for the current signal window.
Mon
63
Tue
65
Wed
67
Thu
70
Fri
72
Now
74
Triggered by a net downward move in front-end yields combined with softer inflation and labor surprise inputs relative to baseline expectations.
Front-end yields, policy path repricing, and macro surprise decomposition.
Sticky services inflation would challenge the current repricing path.
Symbols currently linked to this signal cluster.
Markets most directly affected by this signal right now.
A macro expression on inflation trajectory, employment cooling, and policy messaging.
Linked signal
VIXVolatility regime easing below key stress band
Implied volatility compressed below the 15 to 16 stress range, supporting higher-beta positioning and more stable short-term market-making.
Yes
47%
No
53%
Resolves
Jun 17, 2026
Volume
$2.15M
Liquidity
active
Traders
904
Comments
95
Bias
-1.6%
politics
+4.3%Election probability compresses polling shifts, donor activity, and narrative momentum into one tradable signal.
Linked signal
MSFTMicrosoft trend stack remains constructive above key averages
The trend remains orderly with strong relative quality, supporting the large-cap software leadership basket.
Yes
58%
No
42%
Resolves
Nov 3, 2028
Volume
$4.2M
Liquidity
deep
Traders
1,820
Comments
214
Bias
+4.3%