Resolution
Nov 3, 2028
Election probability compresses polling shifts, donor activity, and narrative momentum into one tradable signal.
YES
58c
NO
42c
24h volume
$1.9M
Open interest
$6.3M
Resolution
Nov 3, 2028
Source
Resolved against certified national election result.
Spread
0.8c
Fee
2.0%
Primary thesis
The current YES bias is being supported by a cleaner nomination path, improving donor momentum, and a modestly more favorable battleground polling mix. The market is not yet pricing a runaway outcome, but it is clearly leaning toward a stronger-than-baseline Democratic setup.
Analyst note
This is a medium-term political probability expression with cleaner narrative support than most election markets. It is most credible when framed as donor, polling, and nomination-strength compression rather than a pure partisan bet.
Conviction
Moderate positive skew
Time horizon
Medium-term
Trade-first order entry with pricing context, expectancy, and execution quality.
Sizing framework
Edge per share
+4c
Expected value
+$40
Upside if right
72%
Pricing context
Market yes
58c
Desk fair value
62c
Time to resolve
31 months
Current position
Contracts
2,250
Avg price
54c
Mark value
$13,050
PnL
+$900
Spread
0.8c
Fees
2.0%
Cash balance
$48,220
Execution
Immediate or resting
Max payout
$1,000
Breakeven view
Above 58c by expiry
How the desk translates research into an executable trade view.
Market yes
58c
Desk fair value
62c
Model edge
+4c vs market
Confidence
Moderate confidence
Execution quality matters as much as the view in event-driven contracts.
Liquidity score
8.4 / 10
Order imbalance
YES +11%
Slippage
1.2c for $25k clip
Participation
1.8k active traders
Catalysts and news translated into what they could do to this contract.
The commitment narrows uncertainty around candidate consolidation and strengthens the nomination narrative.
Repricing read
Fair value +3c
74 / 100
Trading implication
Political contracts reprice faster when fundraising and coalition signals move ahead of public polling, because they alter the perceived durability of the field.
7-day implied probability trend from the market midpoint.
Mar 18
49%
Mar 19
51%
Mar 20
50%
Mar 21
54%
Mar 22
56%
Mar 23
57%
Today
58%
Signal drivers, confidence, and immediate risks behind the current tape.
The trend remains orderly with strong relative quality, supporting the large-cap software leadership basket.
bullish
Confidence 76
Why now
Triggered when price holds above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages while relative strength versus the S&P 500 stays positive.
Source
Trend stack, relative strength, and sector leadership persistence.
Risk
A break below the 20-day trend would reduce the quality of the setup.
Short-end rate expectations moved incrementally dovish, improving odds of a June policy cut and easing financial conditions at the margin.
bullish
Confidence 74
Why now
Triggered by a net downward move in front-end yields combined with softer inflation and labor surprise inputs relative to baseline expectations.
Source
Front-end yields, policy path repricing, and macro surprise decomposition.
Risk
Sticky services inflation would challenge the current repricing path.
A cleaner institutional way to explain upside, base, and downside paths.
bull case
Polling breadth and fundraising remain supportive while the nomination field stays orderly.
base case
The market maintains a modest lead but waits for harder general-election data before expanding.
bear case
Narrative momentum fades and battleground polling stops confirming the recent move.
The small set of variables the desk would keep watching while holding the view.
Track battleground polling breadth rather than single-state outliers.
Watch donor and endorsement momentum for evidence of nomination durability.
Monitor debate performance and post-debate liquidity shifts for repricing signals.
The compressed data points behind the desk fair value.
Polling breadth
+2.3 ptsBattleground median moved enough to justify some repricing, but not a runaway outcome.
Donor velocity
HighFundraising follow-through is confirming the nomination-strength narrative behind the bid.
Narrative crowding
ContainedDiscussion volume is elevated, but positioning does not yet look saturated relative to prior event peaks.
Resolution rules and structural context for the contract.
Top levels on both sides plus the latest prints.
Implied spread
0.0c
YES depth
7,605
NO depth
6,855
Tape skew
Buys +690
Adjacent contracts that share macro or event-driven context.
A macro expression on inflation trajectory, employment cooling, and policy messaging.
Linked signal
VIXVolatility regime easing below key stress band
Implied volatility compressed below the 15 to 16 stress range, supporting higher-beta positioning and more stable short-term market-making.
Yes
47%
No
53%
Desk fair value
62c
Model edge
+4c vs market
Resolves
Jun 17, 2026
Volume
$2.15M
Liquidity
active
Spread
0.8c
Traders
904
Comments
95
Bias
-1.6%
Depth
8.4 / 10
A broad macro contract for growth deterioration, energy drag, and policy limitations.
Linked signal
DXYDollar softness easing pressure on risk assets
A softer dollar is reducing cross-asset pressure and modestly supporting beta, commodities, and crypto-linked positioning.
Yes
29%
No
71%
Desk fair value
62c
Model edge
+4c vs market
A clean directional market for macro liquidity, ETF flows, and reflexive crypto momentum.
Linked signal
BTCBitcoin demand supported by persistent ETF net inflows
Spot demand continues to absorb supply, giving crypto risk higher conviction and keeping new highs within reach.
Yes
64%
No
36%
Desk fair value
69c
Model edge
+5c vs market
Participation improved across defensives and cyclicals, reducing concentration risk and improving the quality of the index tape.
bullish
Confidence 69
Why now
Triggered when internal breadth stops deteriorating and the share of constituents above key short-term averages rebounds.
Source
Breadth proxy, sector dispersion, and internal participation measures.
Risk
A failed breadth follow-through would return the index to narrow leadership risk.
Momentum cooled from overbought conditions without fully damaging the broader trend, leaving room for a watchlist-quality re-entry signal.
neutral
Confidence 62
Why now
Flagged when RSI normalizes from elevated levels while price remains above major medium-term support and volume contracts.
Source
RSI regime, support retention, and relative volume cooling.
Risk
A break below support would turn this from reset to structural weakness.
Resolves
Dec 31, 2026
Volume
$980K
Liquidity
new
Spread
0.8c
Traders
344
Comments
57
Bias
-3.1%
Depth
8.4 / 10
Resolves
Dec 31, 2026
Volume
$3.8M
Liquidity
deep
Spread
0.5c
Traders
1,512
Comments
178
Bias
+7.8%
Depth
9.1 / 10