Resolution
Dec 31, 2026
A broad macro contract for growth deterioration, energy drag, and policy limitations.
YES
29c
NO
71c
24h volume
$1.9M
Open interest
$6.3M
Resolution
Dec 31, 2026
Source
Resolved against certified national election result.
Spread
0.8c
Fee
2.0%
Primary thesis
The current YES bias is being supported by a cleaner nomination path, improving donor momentum, and a modestly more favorable battleground polling mix. The market is not yet pricing a runaway outcome, but it is clearly leaning toward a stronger-than-baseline Democratic setup.
Analyst note
This is a medium-term political probability expression with cleaner narrative support than most election markets. It is most credible when framed as donor, polling, and nomination-strength compression rather than a pure partisan bet.
Conviction
Moderate positive skew
Time horizon
Medium-term
Trade-first order entry with pricing context, expectancy, and execution quality.
Sizing framework
Edge per share
+33c
Expected value
+$330
Upside if right
245%
Pricing context
Market yes
29c
Desk fair value
62c
Time to resolve
31 months
Spread
0.8c
Fees
2.0%
Cash balance
$48,220
Execution
Immediate or resting
Max payout
$1,000
Breakeven view
Above 29c by expiry
How the desk translates research into an executable trade view.
Market yes
29c
Desk fair value
62c
Model edge
+4c vs market
Confidence
Moderate confidence
Execution quality matters as much as the view in event-driven contracts.
Liquidity score
8.4 / 10
Order imbalance
YES +11%
Slippage
1.2c for $25k clip
Participation
1.8k active traders
Catalysts and news translated into what they could do to this contract.
Regional activity data remains soft enough to keep recession contracts in play despite a modest energy reprieve.
Repricing read
Fair value +4c
79 / 100
Trading implication
This is the kind of slow-burn macro update that does not create a one-minute spike, but steadily changes fair value if repeated across releases.
7-day implied probability trend from the market midpoint.
Mar 18
49%
Mar 19
51%
Mar 20
50%
Mar 21
54%
Mar 22
56%
Mar 23
57%
Today
58%
Signal drivers, confidence, and immediate risks behind the current tape.
A softer dollar is reducing cross-asset pressure and modestly supporting beta, commodities, and crypto-linked positioning.
bullish
Confidence 71
Why now
Triggered when the dollar breaks below its near-term range and the move is confirmed by lower real-yield pressure.
Source
Dollar index range structure, rates contribution, and risk-asset sensitivity mapping.
Risk
Any flight-to-safety impulse can reverse the setup quickly.
A cleaner institutional way to explain upside, base, and downside paths.
bull case
Polling breadth and fundraising remain supportive while the nomination field stays orderly.
base case
The market maintains a modest lead but waits for harder general-election data before expanding.
bear case
Narrative momentum fades and battleground polling stops confirming the recent move.
The small set of variables the desk would keep watching while holding the view.
Track battleground polling breadth rather than single-state outliers.
Watch donor and endorsement momentum for evidence of nomination durability.
Monitor debate performance and post-debate liquidity shifts for repricing signals.
The compressed data points behind the desk fair value.
Polling breadth
+2.3 ptsBattleground median moved enough to justify some repricing, but not a runaway outcome.
Donor velocity
HighFundraising follow-through is confirming the nomination-strength narrative behind the bid.
Narrative crowding
ContainedDiscussion volume is elevated, but positioning does not yet look saturated relative to prior event peaks.
Resolution rules and structural context for the contract.
Top levels on both sides plus the latest prints.
Implied spread
0.0c
YES depth
7,605
NO depth
6,855
Tape skew
Buys +690
Adjacent contracts that share macro or event-driven context.
politics
+4.3%Election probability compresses polling shifts, donor activity, and narrative momentum into one tradable signal.
Linked signal
MSFTMicrosoft trend stack remains constructive above key averages
The trend remains orderly with strong relative quality, supporting the large-cap software leadership basket.
Yes
58%
No
42%
Desk fair value
62c
Model edge
+4c vs market
Resolves
Nov 3, 2028
Volume
$4.2M
Liquidity
deep
Spread
0.8c
Traders
1,820
Comments
214
Bias
+4.3%
Depth
8.4 / 10
A clean directional market for macro liquidity, ETF flows, and reflexive crypto momentum.
Linked signal
BTCBitcoin demand supported by persistent ETF net inflows
Spot demand continues to absorb supply, giving crypto risk higher conviction and keeping new highs within reach.
Yes
64%
No
36%
Desk fair value
69c
Model edge
+5c vs market
Resolves
Dec 31, 2026
Volume
$3.8M
Liquidity
deep
Spread
0.5c
Traders
1,512
Comments
178
Bias
+7.8%
Depth
9.1 / 10